MoL-2011-19: Voter Response to Iterated Poll Information

MoL-2011-19: Reijngoud, Annemieke (2011) Voter Response to Iterated Poll Information. [Report]

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Abstract

We develop a formal model of opinion polls in elections and study how they influence voting behaviour, and thereby elections outcomes. We analyse two settings. In the first, we study a voter's incentives to misrepresent her preferences after receiving poll information. We vary the amount of information a poll provides and examine, for different voting procedures, when a voter starts and stops having these incentives. In the second setting, voters repeatedly update their ballot in view of a sequence of polls, and we analyse the effect of this process on the election outcome using both analytical and experimental methods. We consider several ways in which a voter may respond to poll information, and for different combinations of these response policies we study how opinion polls affect the properties of different voting procedures. Together, our results clarify under which circumstances opinion polls can improve the quality of election outcomes and under which circumstances they can have negative effects, due to the increased opportunities for strategic voting they provide.

Item Type: Report
Report Nr: MoL-2011-19
Series Name: Master of Logic Thesis (MoL) Series
Year: 2011
Date Deposited: 12 Oct 2016 14:38
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2016 14:38
URI: https://eprints.illc.uva.nl/id/eprint/864

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